The Trump administration has announced an operation called "Project Freedom" focused on the Strait of Hormuz.
You have seen the steel hulls of the warships gathering in the Strait of Hormuz, a visible display of power intended to secure the flow of oil and protect the commerce of the free world. You have not yet looked for the invisible cost of that security, nor for the families whose livelihoods are quietly extinguished by the very presence of those ships. Let us follow the money a little further, and introduce the person who has been left out of the account.
The administration speaks of “Project Freedom,” a name chosen with the careful precision of a merchant labeling a barrel of wine. It suggests liberation, the opening of gates, the removal of barriers. And indeed, if the strait is choked by hostile action, the ships that pass through it are beneficiaries of this intervention. The oil companies see their supply chains stabilized; the navies see their budgets justified; the politicians see their resolve vindicated. This is the Seen. It is loud, it is dramatic, and it is easily photographed. The cameras capture the aircraft carriers; they do not capture the empty factory floor in a town three thousand miles away, where a machine tool has been sold to fund the ammunition that may or may not be fired.
But let us look at the Unseen. Every dollar spent on the maintenance of a warship in the Persian Gulf is a dollar not spent on the construction of a school, the repair of a bridge, or the purchase of a new loom. The government does not create wealth; it merely redirects it. When the state demands resources for “Project Freedom,” it takes them from the taxpayer. The taxpayer, having less disposable income, buys fewer shoes, eats at home more often, and delays the purchase of a new automobile. The shoemaker, the restaurateur, and the car dealer see their sales decline. They lay off workers. These workers are the Unseen. They do not appear in the press conferences. They do not stand on the deck of the destroyer. They simply find themselves without work, while the nation celebrates the “security” that caused their unemployment.
Consider the logic of the candlemaker, who once petitioned the government to shut the windows and block the sunlight, arguing that the sun was an unfair competitor to his trade. The candlemaker saw only his own shop; he did not see the comfort of the people who preferred the free, abundant light of day. Today, the proponents of military intervention see only the safety of the shipping lanes. They do not see the alternative uses of the capital they are consuming. If the Strait of Hormuz were truly a threat to global prosperity, the market would have already priced in that risk, or private insurers would have adjusted their rates. The intervention assumes that the state is a better allocator of risk than the market, and that the visible protection of a few tons of oil is worth the invisible destruction of countless other economic activities.
we must ask what happens in the second year. If the operation succeeds in deterring hostilities, the ships remain, and the cost continues. If it fails, and hostilities resume, the cost doubles, and the destruction of property - both naval and civilian - becomes the new Seen. In either case, the Unseen victim remains the same: the productive capacity of the nation is diverted from creation to destruction. A ship that patrols a strait is a ship that does not carry goods. A soldier who guards a tanker is a soldier who does not build a house. We are trading potential wealth for the preservation of existing wealth, and in doing so, we are slowing the engine of progress.
The tragedy is not that the administration wishes to protect trade. The tragedy is that they believe protection requires the barrel of a gun rather than the freedom of exchange. If the world were truly free, the Strait of Hormuz would be less of a chokepoint and more of a thoroughfare, because the nations surrounding it would be trading partners rather than adversaries. But by focusing on the military solution, we ignore the economic root of the tension. We treat the symptom with a sledgehammer, while the disease - the lack of free trade and mutual economic interest - continues to fester.
So, when you hear the applause for “Project Freedom,” I ask you to listen for the silence that follows. Who is not clapping? It is the farmer who cannot afford the fertilizer because the price of oil has spiked due to the uncertainty of the operation. It is the teacher whose school budget was cut to fund the defense department. It is the entrepreneur whose startup failed because the capital was redirected to the military-industrial complex. These are the Unseen. They are real. They are suffering. And they are the true cost of the freedom we are told we are buying.
The question the reporting omits is this: Is it better to have a secure strait guarded by warships, or a prosperous world where warships are unnecessary because trade has replaced conflict? We have chosen the former, and we are paying for it with the latter. The account is not balanced. The ledger is incomplete. And until we account for the Unseen, we are not free; we are merely being managed.