On: Explosions trying to deter 'business as usual' strategy at the heart of...

The bombs near the Four Seasons Hotel in Damascus are not a surprise. They are the effectual truth of a strategy that assumed goodwill could be purchased without force. Macron visits Syria to restore normal relations - a prince extending his hand to a former adversary. But the explosions tell us what the handshake conceals: the ground is not pacified. The men who plant bombs do not attend diplomatic receptions. They attend to the business of war.

I recall the Florentine envoys who traveled to negotiate with the Pope’s legate, only to find the roads blocked by mercenaries who had not been paid. The envoy’s safe conduct was worthless because the men with swords had no stake in the agreement. Macron’s visit is a similar safe conduct - it depends on the goodwill of those who control the streets. The bombs prove they do not.

Fortune has changed. The strategy of “business as usual” was viable only while the opposition remained disorganized. Now the opposition has shown it can strike at the heart of the capital, at the very hotel where the prince sleeps. The question is whether Macron has the virtu to adapt - to recognize that the fox’s cunning (diplomacy, economic incentives) must be paired with the lion’s force (military presence, intelligence, protection of allies). If he continues as if the bombs were an accident, he will be trapped.

The republic would handle this differently. A republic would have prepared its citizens for the reality of the conflict, not pretended it was over. It would have built institutions that could absorb such shocks - a citizen militia, not mercenary guards; a public that understood the cost of peace. But Macron rules alone, and alone he must decide. The bombs are a message. The wise prince reads the message before the next one arrives.